Figures of the Government Foresight Report
The Finnish Government adopted in October 2009 the Foresight Report on Long-term Climate and Energy Policy.
Figure 2.1: Variation of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
Variation of carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere during the past 10,000 (large panel) and 250 (inset panel) years. Measurements are shown from ice cores (symbols with different colours for different studies) and atmospheric samples (red lines).
Source: IPPC. 2007. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report. Working Group I Report ”The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policy Makers”. p. 3.
Figure 2.2: Factors affecting the climate
Column width indicates the best estimate of the amount of radiative forcing, while the line bar represents the range of uncertainty.
Lähde: IPCC. 2007. IPCC Fourth Assesment Report. Working Group I Report The Physical Science Basis. Summary for Policy Makers. s.4.
Figure 2.3 Estimated impacts of climate change at various levels of warming
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Based on Stern, Nicholas. 2006. Stern Review on the Economics Of Climate Change. Executive Summary, p.5.
Figure 2.4 Global greenhouse gas emissions
Global greenhouse gas emissions in 2000 by sector, end use and gas (excluding CFC compounds).
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Source: Baumert, K. A. et al. 2005. Navigating the Numbers – Greenhouse Gas Data and International Climate Policy. World Resources Institute.
Figure 2.5: Anticipated warming in this century, without climate policy (left) and with climate policy (right).
Researchers at MIT have compiled two climate roulette wheels to illustrate the probability of different degrees of global warming. The sectors of the roulette wheel on the left show the probabilities that the climate will get warmer by certain amounts during the next 100 years without climate policy. The roulette wheel on the right shows the corresponding values when vigorous climate policies are enacted.
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Source: Figure published with permission of the Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change of MIT (http://globalchange.mit.edu/). Technical data Sokolov et al. 2009. Probabilistic forecast for 21st century climate based on uncertainties in emissions (without policy) and climate parameters. Journal of Climate, Oct 2009, Vol. 22, Issue 19, s. 5175-5204. American Meteorological Society.
Figure 2.6: The probability of attaining the two-degree target at various concentration levels.
Source: Meinshausen, M. 2005. On the risk of overshooting 2 C. Paper presented at Scientific Symposium “Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change”, MetOffice, Exeter, 1-3 February 2005.
Figure 3.1: Examples of consumption-based carbon dioxide emissions by country
The ratio of production-based and consumption-based CO2 emissions in some countries in 2001. The countries below the 100 per cent line are net importers of emissions, i.e. the manufacture of products imported by these countries cause more emissions than the manufacture of products exported by them. Correspondingly, the countries exceeding 100 per cent are net exporters of emissions.
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Source: Peters, G., Hertwich, E., 2008. CO2 embodied in international trade with implications for global climate policy. Environmental science and technology 42 (5), 1401–1407.
Figure 3.2: Emission paths aimed at halving global emissions
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Source: Meinshausen, M. 2007. Stylized emission path. Background note prepared for the UNDP Human Development Report, 2007.
Figure 3.3: Climate funding in proportion to other global flows of funds
Approximation of the annual investment flows and financial flows.
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Source: Greenstream. 2008. Kansainväliset ilmastoneuvottelut. Investointi- ja rahoituskysymykset. Loppuraportti 28.9.2008. [International climate negotiations. Investment and financing issues. Final report, 28 September 2009] p. 25.
Figure 4.1: Some paths outlined towards the target in 2050
The descriptions of the paths do not take a position on whether the emission reduction targets are achieved through domestic measures or partly by financing emission reductions elsewhere. If emissions trading or flexible mechanisms are utilised for reaching the emission targets, domestic emission reductions will be correspondingly smaller..
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Figure 5.1: GDP and GPI trends in Finland 1960–2007
Figures per capita at prices in 2000.
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Source: Hoffrén, Jukka & Rättö, Hanna : GPI hinnoittelee taloudellisen hyvinvoinnin. [The GPI puts a price on economic well-being.] Tieto&Trendit 2/2009. April 2009. Statistics Finland. p. 47.
Figure 5.2: Decoupling between social objectives and the burden on the climate
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Figure 6.1: Finland’s greenhouse gas emissions by sector in 2007
Excluding land use, land use change and forestry.
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Source: Statistics Finland. 2009. Greenhouse gas inventory.
Figure 6.2: Agricultural emissions by production line
The percentages are based on estimates and are therefore indicative.
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Source: Bionova Engineering. 2008. Maatalouden kasvihuonekaasupäästöjen kustannustehokas vähentäminen [Cost-efficient reduction of agricultural greenhouse gas emissions]. Report by the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, 26 April 2008, p. 22.
Figure 6.3: Halving energy production emissions worldwide in various ways
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Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2008. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. OECD/International Energy Agency 2008, p. 64.
* Purchasing Power Parity
Figure 6.4: Public R&D funding in the energy sector in the IEA countries
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Source: Energy Technology Perspectives 2008. Scenarios & Strategies to 2050. International Energy Agency 2008, p. 172.
Figure 7.1: Factors affecting consumer behaviour
Besides awareness, many other factors affect people’s everyday choices. These include customary behaviour, the environment, the supply of products and services, and the behaviour of other people. All five factors must be influenced when guiding people towards climate-friendly choices.
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Source: Heiskanen, E. 2009. National Consumer Research Centre.
Figure 7.2: Distribution of carbon dioxide emissions from transport by type
About 64% of carbon dioxide emissions originate in passenger traffic and about 36% in the transport of goods. Nearly two thirds of carbon dioxide emissions from passenger traffic stem from traffic over long distances between sub-regions. This also includes emissions from ships and airplanes.
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Source: Kalenoja, H., Mäntynen, J., Kallberg, H., Jokipii, T., Korpela, K. & Kulmala, M. 2002. Liikenteen hiilidioksidipäästöjen vähentämismahdollisuudet Suomessa. [Potential for reducing carbon dioxide emissions from transport in Finland] CLIMTECH research programme, Mobile 2 research module. Tampere University of Technology, Traffic and transport studies 48. Tampere. p. 11.
Figure 7.3: Examples of the carbon balance of foods
Ranges of variation for the carbon balance of some foods estimated on the basis of various studies.
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Source: Katajajuuri, Juha-Matti. 2009.
Figure 7.4: An example of a possible climate label
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Source: Nissinen, Ari & Seppälä, Jyri. 2008. Tuotteiden ilmastovaikutuksista kertovat merkit [Labels for indicating the climate impacts of products]. Background study to the Foresight Report of Prime Minister Matti Vanhanen’s II Cabinet. Prime Minister’s Office Publications 11/2008. p. 34.
Figure 8.1: Climate protection helps mitigate global warming, and adaptation helps cope with its impacts
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Source: European Commission. 2005. Winning the battle against global climate change. Commission Staff Working Paper. Background paper, p. 7.
Figure 8.2: Estimated trend in Finland’s average temperature
Estimated trend in Finland’s annual average temperature during this century. In scenario A2, emissions continue to increase rapidly. In scenario B1, emissions are restricted effectively. Scenario A1B illustrates a mix between the two scenarios.
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Source: Nevanlinna, Heikki (ed.). 2008. Muutamme ilmastoa. Ilmatieteen laitoksen tutkijoiden katsaus ilmastonmuutokseen [We are changing the climate. A review of climate change by researchers of the Finnish Meteorological Institute]. Karttakeskus. Porvoo, p. 138.
Figure 8.3: Impact of uncertainty factors on estimates of temperature trends
The red curve shows the trend observed so far. The coloured areas describe uncertainties caused by different factors in future climate predictions.
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Source: Räisänen, J. & K. Ruosteenoja. 2008: Probabilistic forecasts of temperature and precipitation change based on global climate model simulations (CES deliverable 2.2). p. 46.
Figure 8.4: Costs caused by the rising sea level, with and without adaptation measures
The estimates are based on SRES scenario A2 of the IPCC.
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Source: European Commission. 2007. Adapting to climate change in Europe – options for EU action. COM(2007)354 final. Brussels, 29 June 2007, p. 10.
Figure 1: Trend of energy consumption in industry
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Figure 2: Trend in the energy consumption of transport
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Figure 3: Wood use in 2006 and the potential for constructional timber and energy wood in 2050
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Figure 4: Greenhouse gas emissions in the various scenarios
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Figure 5: Trend Change in industrial emissions included in emissions trading
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